Cefetra Market Report:
Harvest is upon us!! With continued market volatility, talk to us about maximising your opportunities.
Harvest is upon us!!! It’s early and dry. The heatwave certainly pushed things on and created some challenges. Harvesting at night and stopping in the morning because OSR too dry and serious crop fires on Salisbury Plain and across in East Anglia – scary and very dangerous. For those of us old enough to remember it reminds me of 1976; whilst still at school we had to help put out forest fires in the school grounds.
The winter barleys are all but complete and yields are above the five-year average. Bushel weights have been excellent; the highest we have seen across the weighbridge was 76.1 bushel (10.2% moisture). The OSR seems to have yielded well at circa 1.5-2.0T per acre with the odd extreme. Oil content is good and no drying charges!! We have people starting to make inroads on the Wheats and early indications are promising.
The markets continue to be volatile. In the main they have eased lower with macro-economic factors weighing on global commodity markets. We do feel that they are down at a level that should see some support, especially with concerns about weather issues impacting the corn and soyabean crops in both North America and Europe. That said, the main driver has been Ukraine and the possibility of a humanitarian corridor to allow grain shipments out. As I write it is stated that a deal between Russia and Ukraine will be signed today. Personally, I find it hard to believe this will actually be workable especially as Lloyds Marine Insurers are demanding international navy escorts and a mine clearing strategy before they will insure any vessels going into the corridor.
Germany’s national railway is planning to start freight train services carrying Ukrainian grain from Romania to German ports (including Rostock, Hamburg and Brake). This will be several trains a week, but capacity is limited on the railway network. It’s a help but not enough to really solve the situation.
Across the EU harvests are progressing and yields and quality are in line with expectations, with no real quality concerns despite the hot weather they have also seen. There may be more impact on the Spring Barleys. Malting Barley prices are still at excellent levels with strong premiums over feed barley.
The likelihood is that this market will remain volatile, reacting to geo-political events and weather events, as well fundamentals such as supply and demand. Please do keep talking to us as we will update on prices and give our views on market opportunities. The demand for storage will mean it will quickly become tight so if you think you need movement/storage make sure you are sorting it now.
If you wish to discuss your grain marketing, please do not hesitate to contact us: